Gov't audit reveals potential 81,000 worker shortfall
The former Yoon Suk Yeol administration significantly underestimated the workforce needed for Korea’s future semiconductor industry, which could face a shortfall of up to 81,000 workers if current policies remain unchanged, according to a government audit released on Tuesday.
The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI)'s report on talent development for the Fourth Industrial Revolution found that the government’s 2022 forecast severely underestimated demand and overestimated the supply of personnel in the industry.
In July 2022, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy projected that the semiconductor industry would require 127,000 new workers over the following decade, from 2022 to 2031. The forecast followed then-President Yoon’s directive at a Cabinet meeting shortly after taking office, in which he called for a comprehensive workforce development plan for high-tech sectors, including the semiconductor industry.
In a press conference marking his first 100 days in office in August 2022, Yoon said the government would aim to cultivate 150,000 semiconductor experts through public-private cooperation based on the ministry’s estimate.
However, the audit found that the Trade Ministry’s 2022 projection only considered additional demand stemming from the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry and failed to factor in replacement demand from retirements and other labor force exits. The ministry reportedly excluded this from the forecast, citing the difficulty of estimating the figure and its presumed "low impact."
But according to a revised estimate commissioned by the audit agency, replacement demand could reach 89,000 workers. The industry ministry also over-calculated the growth demand, according to the BAI, and an updated forecast from the Korean Economic Association put growth-related demand at 92,000 ? 35,000 fewer than the ministry’s original projection.
The number resulted in an error margin of about 42 percent, indicating that, taken together, total workforce demand in the semiconductor sector through 2031 would be 181,000 ? 54,000 more than the ministry’s earlier forecast.
The Ministry of Education’s response plan, based on that flawed projection, was also deemed unreliable. The ministry’s policy aimed to produce 151,000 workers by 2031. However, it included retraining programs for current employees as part of the new supply, despite those efforts not generating new entrants to the workforce. The audit found that the policy overestimated the supply by approximately 50,000.
With the real demand at 181,000, the gap between demand and supply could reach 81,000 workers, according to the BAI.
“If the semiconductor workforce development projects proceed based on the current projection, there is concern that the necessary number of workers will not be sufficiently met,” the BAI said in its report.
The audit also found that the Education Ministry’s digital workforce expansion plan lacked breakdowns by specific technologies. Although the plan included a general workforce goal for the broader digital industry, it did not specify supply strategies for individual technologies, such as AI, cloud computing, the Internet of Things (IoT), the metaverse, 5G and 6G, software, big data and cybersecurity.
"While the supply of workers for AI and the metaverse is expected to exceed demand by next year, shortages are likely in the other six areas," said the BAI.